Important dates:
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | 12212 | 55070 | 443 | 112 | 240 |
| Aug 18 | 12246 | 55183 | 445 | 112 | 255 |
| Aug 19 | 12280 | 55263 | 448 | 112 | 289 |
| Aug 20 | 12311 | 55356 | 448 | 113 | 293 |
| Aug 21 | 12344 | 55419 | 449 | 113 | 281 |
| Aug 22 | 12381 | 55492 | 442 | 113 | 283 |
| Aug 23 | 12381 | 55531 | 450 | 113 | 245 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.9 | 6.5% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 2.6 | 9.8% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 5.6 | 18.8% | 46 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 5.9 | 21.6% | 53 | 0.39% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 2.7 | 12.7% | 31 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 4.6 | 14.3% | 35 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.0 | 9% | 22 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.0 | 7.3% | 18 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 0 | 27.1 | 100% | 245 | 0.23% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | 7908 | 32304 | 329 | 97 | 180 |
| Aug 18 | 7929 | 32354 | 331 | 97 | 184 |
| Aug 19 | 7947 | 32392 | 330 | 97 | 189 |
| Aug 20 | 7974 | 32436 | 330 | 97 | 204 |
| Aug 21 | 7999 | 32466 | 333 | 97 | 199 |
| Aug 22 | 8024 | 32495 | 325 | 97 | 202 |
| Aug 23 | 8044 | 32523 | 333 | 97 | 188 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.7 | 9.6% | 18 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.3 | 11.7% | 22 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.1 | 10.6% | 20 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.4 | 22.3% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.4 | 20.7% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.4 | 6.4% | 12 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.3 | 11.2% | 21 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.4 | 7.4% | 14 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 20 | 20.1 | 100% | 188 | 0.29% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | 6051 | 21691 | 294 | 85 | 94 |
| Aug 18 | 6074 | 21717 | 294 | 85 | 107 |
| Aug 19 | 6080 | 21738 | 294 | 85 | 109 |
| Aug 20 | 6094 | 21767 | 295 | 85 | 121 |
| Aug 21 | 6102 | 21781 | 296 | 85 | 118 |
| Aug 22 | 6116 | 21803 | 289 | 85 | 123 |
| Aug 23 | 6130 | 21812 | 299 | 85 | 116 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 3.4% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.7 | 12.9% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.7 | 13.8% | 16 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.3 | 15.5% | 18 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.9 | 14.7% | 17 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.9 | 17.2% | 20 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.3 | 10.3% | 12 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.3 | 12.1% | 14 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 14 | 12.4 | 100% | 116 | 0.26% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | 13177 | 62453 | 493 | 91 | 218 |
| Aug 18 | 13202 | 62569 | 497 | 92 | 220 |
| Aug 19 | 13237 | 62667 | 497 | 92 | 249 |
| Aug 20 | 13274 | 62745 | 497 | 92 | 263 |
| Aug 21 | 13311 | 62841 | 497 | 92 | 269 |
| Aug 22 | 13339 | 62915 | 494 | 92 | 274 |
| Aug 23 | 13356 | 62960 | 497 | 92 | 252 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.1 | 6.3% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.6 | 13.9% | 35 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 5.9 | 18.7% | 47 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 4.0 | 13.9% | 35 | 0.26% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 4.3 | 16.3% | 41 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.3 | 15.5% | 39 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.9 | 6.7% | 17 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 4 | 2.0 | 8.7% | 22 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 17 | 29.0 | 100% | 252 | 0.21% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | 47583 | 376914 | 1705 | 318 | 865 |
| Aug 18 | 47667 | 377437 | 1709 | 318 | 833 |
| Aug 19 | 47788 | 377909 | 1713 | 318 | 924 |
| Aug 20 | 47901 | 378371 | 1710 | 319 | 982 |
| Aug 21 | 48019 | 378939 | 1720 | 319 | 1024 |
| Aug 22 | 48067 | 379182 | 1719 | 319 | 972 |
| Aug 23 | 48142 | 379609 | 1722 | 319 | 890 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 12.0 | 12.6% | 112 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 9.0 | 10.8% | 96 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 18.6 | 20.8% | 185 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 16.1 | 17% | 151 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 13.7 | 15.4% | 137 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 10.3 | 10.9% | 97 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 6.6 | 7.1% | 63 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 5 | 4.7 | 5.5% | 49 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 75 | 91.0 | 100% | 890 | 0.16% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | 640248 | 3093068 | 34506 | 7483 | 11199 |
| Aug 18 | 641553 | 3097626 | 34621 | 7499 | 11725 |
| Aug 19 | 642970 | 3104014 | 34734 | 7503 | 12674 |
| Aug 20 | 644554 | 3108649 | 34817 | 7516 | 12804 |
| Aug 21 | 645977 | 3113256 | 34913 | 7520 | 12844 |
| Aug 22 | 646711 | 3116501 | 34705 | 7520 | 12181 |
| Aug 23 | 647489 | 3119761 | 34998 | 7521 | 11145 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 82 | 128.1 | 10% | 1116 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 114 | 162.1 | 12.6% | 1406 | 0.19% |
| 20-29 | 140 | 210.1 | 17.1% | 1907 | 0.25% |
| 30-39 | 117 | 206.7 | 16.5% | 1839 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 110 | 175.1 | 13.9% | 1548 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 72 | 161.7 | 12.3% | 1369 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 81 | 128.3 | 9.7% | 1085 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 62 | 101.7 | 7.9% | 875 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 778 | 1274.0 | 100% | 11145 | 0.19% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.3 | 27.9 | 34.4 | 27.1 | 28.1 | 26.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44.2 | 20.1 | 18.9 | 34.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.1 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 38.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.1 | 24.8 | 36.2 | 29 | 20.9 | 26.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.4 | 19.4 | 27.9 | 91 | 82.7 | 18.1% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.5 | 28.1 | 39.8 | 1274 | 1092.3 | 23.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-09-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6927"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges